22 Comments
User's avatar
Mihai Mandeal's avatar

Great article, as always. I really appreciate your work and passion for this space. Thank you!

Tommy Lee's avatar

Glad you found the page, Mihai. This was big news in the Norway rig market!

Mihai Mandeal's avatar

Been following you for a while now since I diped my toes in the offshore rigs :)

Tommy Lee's avatar

This is a volatile industry with both good and bad surprises ahead of it, but I believe deepwater energy has tailwinds behind it. Just need oil prices to cooperate. Buckle up!

Mihai Mandeal's avatar

Learnt the volatility part on my own skin. Now waiting for the cycle to turn 😀

Coppcar's avatar

Thank you. Nice work!

Tommy Lee's avatar

Thanks for taking time to read. Big news in semisub market!

Nick's avatar

Thanks for another great article. Any thoughts on Hercules, still warm stacked and looking for work.

Tommy Lee's avatar

Thanks, Nick. I think Hercules is a good candidate for the Var Energi tender although its history as an exploration-focused rig does not help. I think it will eventually find work.

Alexandros K.'s avatar

Joining my previous commenters, great note Tommy!

Is NOL/Mira tangentially affected by this news? I recall they seem to focus on West African employment opportunities for now, but the option to return to the NCS isn‘t without value either…

Tommy Lee's avatar

Good question, Alexandros. All else equal, the addition of one more NCS-eligible rig is negative for Mira’s competitiveness in Norway. However, recent news of the Vår Energi multiyear tender could create an opportunity in Norway if they drop the COSL semisub. I believe Mira is most likely to find its home in West Africa, though too soon to rule out a return to Norway because of the new Vår opportunity. COSL could be the loser when all is said and done but we'll see. I used to think GreatWhite could end up in Namibia but Mira's position in the region makes that less likely and in my opinion, indicates Mira is most likely to stay where she is and its most efficient from a mobilization spend perspective

Alexandros K.'s avatar

Appreciate the details and nuance, thank you Tommy!

john.dentice's avatar

Thanks Tommy. Insightful as always 👍

Tommy Lee's avatar

John, I appreciate you continuing to read. I admit it's a bit surprising to see a Kermit the Frog avatar commenting on offshore drilling rig posts but I like it!!

john.dentice's avatar

It's to remind me that I am just a Muppet, Tommy :)

Canada Jay's avatar

Great overview!

Tommy Lee's avatar

Thanks, Jay. GreatWhite was potentially a candidate for work in Canada if not Norway

Canada Jay's avatar

Interesting, was the work off the coast of Newfoundland?

Tommy Lee's avatar

Yes. That's not one of the most capital efficient offshore region in the world though so demand there can be sporadic

Michael's avatar

Thanks for this update. Excellent. I really appreciate it.

Tommy Lee's avatar

I appreciate your time reading, thanks Michael

Sandro | Cannibal Stocks's avatar

Smart move by Noble offloading the jackups to Borr. The jackup market is well-supplied and getting new rigs to market is relatively cheap compared to deepwater, so there's limited pricing power long-term. Using that $210mm in cash to fund the GreatWhite upgrade is essentially swapping a commoditized asset for access to one of the tightest floater markets in the world.

Curious to see if the $160mm estimate holds — Norway has a way of making costs creep up