Noble's Semisub Upgrade Trade
Noble’s $1.3B of new contract awards and Norway entry
Noble announced multiple contract awards, led by a three-year Aker BP contract in Norway for the GreatWhite semisub following an upgrade to enter the NCS floater market. This note focuses on the strategic and valuation implications of the GreatWhite upgrade and also reviewing Noble’s additional recent contract wins across its deepwater and semisub fleet.
Noble announced several contracts Monday, with the standout being a new three-year Aker BP contract in Norway at ~$430k/day for the GreatWhite semisub, requiring ~$160mm of capex as a “strategic entry into the Norwegian floater market.”
Noble’s ~$160mm capex to upgrade GreatWhite for NCS compliance is a near-term cash outflow that may disappoint shareholders, but it’s a defensible strategic decision. GreatWhite is currently idle, with a weaker UK North Sea outlook due to politics and competition in other markets. By upgrading for Norway, Noble is effectively buying utilization, as the NCS offers longer-term contracts, unlike the choppier outlook GreatWhite would face elsewhere over the next five years.
GreatWhite is a Moss CS60 design semisub, the same design as a few other semisubs operating on the NCS. However, it has not met Norway’s stricter regulatory standards and has instead been most recently working in the UK North Sea. Achieving NCS compliance is expensive but unlocks access to a more resilient Norwegian E&P capex environment and a structurally tighter floater market, positioning the rig for high utilization and sustaining dayrates above $400k, which supports a materially higher long-term asset valuation.
Semisub Arbitrage: While GreatWhite faces downtime risk through 2027 with only sporadic work thereafter, Noble likely took note of Odfjell Drilling’s $480mm acquisition of the Deepsea Bollsta (the same Moss CS60 design) in December 2025. Odfjell’s pure-play NCS semisubs are also valued at roughly $550–575mm per rig on the Oslo exchange as of January 26, 2026. With GreatWhite currently idle and at risk of prolonged cold-stacking without Norway access, the ~$160mm upgrade appears value-accretive relative to the rig’s depressed standalone valuation. An upgraded GreatWhite will not command an Odfjell-like valuation, but after the upgrade its sits in a strong market as a credible mid-tier NCS-eligible semisub though will depend on its future performance.
The question will be if Noble can truly upgrade GreatWhite for only $160mm. While numbers are often thrown around loosely, I previously heard about $200mm as the rumored cost for a GreatWhite upgrade. I initially questioned Noble allocating that much capex to GreatWhite instead of buybacks, but Odfjell Drilling’s equity performance serves as a clear proxy for the NCS semisub market, where strong fundamentals have driven meaningful share-price appreciation (>250% over last 3 years) and unquestionably played a role in Noble’s upgrade decision.
The $160mm upgrade cost may prove optimistic. Norway is costly to operate in, and Noble will now likely face elevated SPS spend. Odfjell recently completed its five-year SPS at ~$50mm per rig with strong execution; given GreatWhite’s lack of prior Norway operations and an upgrade cost below rumored ~$200mm, future SPS costs could be higher and will require careful management. Strong NCS utilization should support future capex funding, though execution will be important to monitor.
A year ago, a modest weakness in Noble’s fleet was its heavy exposure to 7G drillships, non-Norway-eligible semisubs and jackups. Since then, Noble has upgraded two 7G rigs to “7G+” under incentive-heavy Shell contracts and has now entered the attractive Norway semisub market using a unique opportunity with GreatWhite. While these moves improve fleet quality and diversification, equity investors are unlikely to reward ongoing upgrade cycles without incremental shareholder returns beyond the current dividend.
Norway Semisub Market Impact
Noble’s entry into Norway is modestly negative for incumbents like Odfjell and Transocean, though the impact is limited given it’s only one rig. NCS utilization remains very strong, supporting dividends at Odfjell and cash flows for Transocean bondholders, even as non-Norway markets face weaker utilization into 2026. Norway E&P capex has been resilient, as evidenced by dayrates down only mid-single digits despite oil price weakness.
While recent semisub exits tightened the NCS semisub market, GreatWhite signals some supply returning after Bollsta’s (now named Bergen) return in 2025. One rig alone is unlikely to disrupt fundamentals but does limit dayrate upside. Additional supply is possible—Transocean has three semisubs internationally, Northern Ocean has Mira, and stranded NCS-spec newbuild supply exists—though reactivation and mobilization would be costly. Overall, the NCS semisub market remains healthy and cash-generative, but sustained dayrates above $500k appear constrained. Comparatively, drillships arguably have more dayrate upside potential but with a wider variance of market outcomes.
Capex Funding and Other Contract Wins
In early December, Noble sold six jackups for $360mm, receiving $210mm in cash and a $150mm six-year seller’s note to Borr. Notably, the $210mm cash proceeds closely align with Noble’s planned upgrade and contract-prep spending—$160mm for GreatWhite and roughly $50mm across other rigs. While the seller’s note to a high-yield issuer is less appealing, the transaction sharpens Noble’s focus on deepwater and appears to fund these upgrades, including a potential MPD upgrade for the 6G drillship Gerry de Souza.
Gerry de Souza (6G Drillship): Noble secured a two-year Exxon contract in Nigeria at a $400k headline dayrate (including MPD), with up to three years of options, starting mid-2026. After West Africa delays weighed on the drillship market in 2025, this multiyear award is a positive signal—not just for Noble, but for overall drillship demand in a region that has driven recent idle time.
Guyana: Noble operates four 7G drillships in Guyana supporting Exxon’s Stabroek Block and recently secured a two-year extension through February 2029 for the Sam Croft, Don Taylor, Tom Madden, and Bob Douglas. The contracts use a variable dayrate structure that resets semiannually rather than fixed disclosed rates.
Noble Endeavor (Semisub): This older semisub (built 1975, upgraded 2009) had been operating in the UK and was viewed as a potential retirement candidate, but instead secured an ~11-well contract on the Falklands’ Sea Lion project at roughly $300k/day. It’s a solid multi-year win for Noble, though the market had hoped the rig might retire. That said, Sea Lion represents incremental demand, limiting the impact on the global rig market.
Noble Developer (Semisub): Secured a 240-day BP contract in Trinidad at $375k/day starting 1Q27. While previously slated for TotalEnergies’ Suriname work, that program will now be handled by the very similar semisub Noble Discoverer, commencing in 2H26.
Great article, as always. I really appreciate your work and passion for this space. Thank you!
Thank you. Nice work!